The Analyst's Path

Glossarytaught in M3.06, M7.05

Cyclically adjusted price to earnings

Also called CAPE, Shiller PE, normalised PE.

Price divided by the average of inflation-adjusted earnings over a longer window, usually ten years. It exists to stop a cyclical peak or trough from setting the multiple.

On this basis a share at ₹1,200 with ten-year average real earnings of ₹9.50 trades at 126.3 times, against 97.6 on trailing earnings.

CAPE works best at index level and over long horizons, where the mean-reversion it assumes has some empirical support. Apply it to a single fast-growing company and it's close to meaningless, because a ten-year average of a business that has quadrupled isn't a normal earnings level.

For an individual cyclical, mid-cycle earnings estimated from capacity and normal margins beat a mechanical average.

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