Availability heuristic

Judging the probability of an event by how easily examples come to mind, which is driven by vividness and coverage rather than by frequency.

Investors overestimate the probability of dramatic, well-reported events and underestimate slow, undramatic ones, which is why fraud risk feels high after a fraud is reported and low the rest of the time.

Base rates are the corrective, and they are almost always available for the questions that matter.

Count, rather than recall.