Bull case

The scenario in which things go well, built to be internally consistent rather than merely optimistic.

Its discipline is that everything moves together. If volumes are higher, competitors respond; if margins expand, entrants appear; if growth is faster, more capital is needed.

The purpose is to bound the upside so that a position can be sized. A bull case that is simply the base case with better numbers is not a scenario.

Ask what has to be true, then whether anyone has ever achieved it.