Glossary
Explicit forecast period
M3.04Also called forecast horizon, projection period.
The years for which cash flows are modelled individually, before the terminal value takes over.
Five years is the market convention and is often too short. The right length is however long it takes the business to reach a steady state, meaning stable margins, stable reinvestment, and returns converging toward the cost of capital. A young company earning 40% on capital will not be there in five years, and truncating the forecast forces the terminal assumption to carry a competitive position that has not yet faded.
Lengthening the horizon does not add precision to the individual years. It moves the point at which you have to assume normality to a place where normality is plausible.
Forecast until the business is boring, then stop.