Intrinsic value

What a business is worth on the basis of the cash it will produce, independent of what anyone will pay for it today.

The number is an estimate with wide error bars rather than a fact, and treating it as a fact is the commonest failure among people who have just learned to build a model. Two careful analysts with the same information will reach different answers, and both can be defensible.

What the estimate provides is not precision but a reference point. Without one, a price movement is the only information available, and price movements are the least reliable input there is.

Hold the estimate loosely and the process tightly.