The Analyst's Path

Glossary

Sanity check

M3.09 · M0.03

Also called reasonableness check, smell test.

A rough independent calculation used to test whether a detailed answer is plausible.

A model forecasting ₹9,450 crore of revenue in a ₹63,000 crore market is claiming 15% share, and asking whether the company can plausibly hold 15% is a different and better question than checking the spreadsheet.

The best checks come from a different direction than the model. Compare implied volumes to capacity, implied headcount to revenue per employee, implied capital spending to the asset base.

If the answer fails the check, the model is wrong even when the arithmetic is right.