The Analyst's Path

Phase 6 · Investing philosophy, mental models and behavioural edge · free

The Schools II: Fisher to Pabrai

M6.02 · 23,845 words

A beginner meets the great investors as a set of clashing commandments. Graham says buy statistical bargains and diversify widely; Munger says buy wonderful businesses and concentrate.

Learning objectives

By the end of the week you can:

  1. State each school's core tenets, master text, and edge-window for Fisher (growth + scuttlebutt), Lynch (GARP), Greenblatt (special situations + the Magic Formula), Klarman (absolute value), Marks (cycles + risk), Pabrai (Dhandho asymmetry), and the quality-compounders (Akre, Smith, Sleep), in two or three sentences each, and name when the school works and when it fails.
  2. Run Fisher's scuttlebutt method: turn the fifteen points into a concrete qualitative-research plan (whom to call, what to read, what to listen for) on a real company, and connect it to the Phase 8 deep dive's Day 3.
  3. Classify any company into Lynch's six categories (slow grower, stalwart, fast grower, cyclical, turnaround, asset play) and derive the category-specific question that decides the thesis. Compute and interpret a PEG (and the dividend-adjusted PEG), knowing exactly what PEG can and cannot see.
  4. Execute the Magic Formula end-to-end: define earnings yield (EBIT/EV) and return on capital (EBIT/tangible capital), rank a universe, combine the ranks, and state the honest evidence on the strategy: why it worked, why it lags for years at a time, and how much is just value × quality.
  5. Distinguish absolute-value from relative-value investing (Klarman), explain why holding cash can be the disciplined output of a bottom-up process rather than a market call, and say what "margin of safety" adds beyond a cheap multiple.
  6. Apply Marks's second-level thinking, his definition of risk as permanent loss, and the pendulum/cycle model to a real market episode, and locate today's market on the cycle without pretending to forecast it (the bridge into Phase 7).
  7. Build a Dhandho ("heads I win, tails I don't lose much") asymmetric bet: lay out the outcome tree, compute the expected value, verify the downside is survivable, and connect the sizing logic to Kelly and to Phase 9.
  8. Argue the concentration-versus-diversification question from both sides, Munger/Pabrai/Sleep versus Graham/Schloss, using Kelly, hidden correlation, and ruin-avoidance, and state the specific factors that set the right answer for a given investor.

Prerequisites & connections

Builds on. M6.01: everything here is "Schools II," so the vocabulary of intrinsic value, Mr. Market, margin of safety, owner earnings, and the four filters is assumed; Fisher and the quality-compounders are the growth half of the synthesis Buffett made ("85% Graham, 15% Fisher"), and the missing 15% and its descendants arrive this week. M4.04–M4.05: the moat lenses and the ROIC-persistence test. The quality-compounder school (§4.8) is moat analysis worn as a portfolio philosophy, and Sleep's "scale economies shared" is a specific flywheel you already met in M4. M2.03: ROIC/ROCE built by hand and the ~12% (INR) / ~8–9% (USD) hurdle (as of mid-2026, verify against your own WACC builds). The Magic Formula's "return on capital" leg and Akre's "compounding machine" are that number, systematized. M3.05–M3.06: reverse DCF, the multiples and their driver algebra, and the India premium-multiple discipline. PEG (§4.3), the Magic Formula's earnings yield (§4.4), and "don't overpay" (§4.8) all live inside that machinery. M3.10: special situations and the SOTP/holdco discount. Greenblatt's spin-offs (§4.4) are where those discounts are born and closed.

Feeds forward. M6.03, mental models and decision science: Pabrai's Dhandho (§4.7) and the concentration debate (§4.9) hand directly to Kelly, fractional Kelly, expected value, and ergodicity/ruin, which M6.03 makes rigorous. M6.04, behavioral finance: Marks's pendulum and three-stages model (§4.6) is the sentiment cycle M6.04 explains bias-by-bias, and every school here is, at bottom, a pre-commitment device against a specific bias. M6.05, the checklist capstone: the schools you resonate with become lines in your personal checklist. M8.04: the deep dive's Day 3 is Fisher's scuttlebutt (§4.2) run under a workbook, and the fifteen points are the skeleton of that day. Phase 7: Marks's cycles are the investor's-eye view of the macro machine Phase 7 builds mechanically. M9.01–M9.02: risk as permanent loss (Marks, Klarman), position sizing (Pabrai/Kelly), hidden correlation, and the concentration policy you'll commit to in writing are §4.6–4.9 turned into a portfolio process. Competency C9 in the master map ("an investor's temperament and process") begins here, and the schools are where temperament gets its vocabulary.

This page is an excerpt

The full module runs to 23,845 words and carries the worked examples, the tables, the quiz that gates the next module and the spaced-repetition deck built from it. All of it is free and none of it needs an account.

Terms this module defines