The Analyst's Path

DCF model in Excel

A DCF model in Excel is a worksheet that builds free cash flow to the firm for each forecast year and discounts it back at the cost of capital. Every line is pulled from the model tab instead of retyped, and capex and working-capital increases enter as negatives so that FCFF is a single sum. Analysts also check that the reinvestment supports the growth assumed, and choose between year-end and mid-year discounting on purpose.

4 min readPart of Modeling II: DCF, Comps, LBO & M&AOpen in course mode

Advertisement

Start with the tab layout. Column B holds labels, and columns C:G are FY1 to FY5. The FY0 year, the one that just ended, goes in column B where you need it for deltas. Inputs are marked ⟦blue⟧.

How do you build the FCFF block in Excel?

Block 1: the FCFF build (rows 5–10). Pull, don't retype. Every line comes from the Model tab.

RowLabelFY1 formula (fill right)Sundar FY1
5EBIT=Model!C38403.2
6× (1 − tax rate)=C5*(1-$C$3) where C3 ⟦25%⟧302.4
7+ D&A=Model!C52100.8
8− Capex=-Model!C64(145.6)
9− Δ Net working capital=-(Model!C58-Model!B58)(36.0)
10FCFF=SUM(C6:C9)221.6

Row 6 is NOPAT, which is EBIT after tax. Rows 7 to 9 are stored as signed adjustments, so FCFF is a clean SUM(C6:C9). Watch the signs. Capex and NWC increases enter as negatives. A sign flip in row 9 is the classic self-inflicted wound. If working capital is a use of cash and your FCFF went up, you flipped it. Add a sanity row, FCFF check = Model CFO − Model capex + after-tax interest. It works because FCFF is pre-financing and CFO is post-interest, the same reconciliation you met when FCFF was first defined.

If the two disagree by more than rounding, find out why before you go any further.

Advertisement

Worked example: forecast FCFF and discount it

Sundar Foods' full forecast goes like this. Revenue growth fades from 12% to 11%, 10%, 9% and then 8%. EBIT margin is 18%, D&A is 4.5% of revenue, and capex fades from 6.5% to 5.0% of revenue. ΔNWC is 15% of incremental revenue, and tax is 25%.

₹ crFY1FY2FY3FY4FY5
Revenue2,240.02,486.42,735.02,981.23,219.7
EBIT (18%)403.2447.6492.3536.6579.5
NOPAT302.4335.7369.2402.5434.7
+ D&A100.8111.9123.1134.2144.9
− Capex(145.6)(161.6)(164.1)(164.0)(161.0)
− ΔNWC(36.0)(37.0)(37.3)(36.9)(35.8)
FCFF221.6249.0290.9335.7382.8

Before you touch a discount rate, run the consistency test from the forecasting work. Does the reinvestment support the growth? Total reinvestment in FY5 = (161.0 − 144.9) + 35.8 = ₹51.9 cr, against NOPAT of 434.7. A reinvestment rate of ~12% funding 8% growth implies incremental returns of ~67%. That's aggressive, but it isn't absurd for an asset-light snacks franchise scaling up plants it already has. Note it, and remember that the terminal year won't be allowed to keep that assumption.

Block 2: discounting (rows 12–15).

RowLabelFY1 formulaValues
12Period=COLUMN()-COLUMN($B$12) → 1, 2, … 51–5
13Discount factor=1/(1+$C$4)^C12 where C4 = =WACC!C120.8929 … 0.5674
14PV of FCFF=C10*C13197.9, 198.5, 207.1, 213.4, 217.2
15Σ PV explicit window=SUM(C14:G14)1,034.0

Two mechanical notes. First, =NPV($C$4, C10:G10) gives the same 1,034.0, but only because NPV assumes the first cell is one full year away and that every flow lands at year-end. Know that assumption. When valuation dates and fiscal year-ends drift apart, switch to XNPV with real dates, as you did when IRR and NPV first came up.

Should you use mid-year discounting?

Second, the mid-year convention. Cash arrives throughout the year, and it doesn't all turn up on 31 March at 11:59 pm. So many practitioners discount at t − 0.5 instead, by changing row 13's exponent to (C12-0.5). That's the same as multiplying year-end EV by (1+WACC)^0.5 = 1.0583 here, an uplift of ~5.8%. By default, the course uses the mid-year convention, set back in the terminal-value lessons and applied to the terminal value as well as the explicit flows.

So why does this tab print year-end figures? On purpose. While you're learning the layout, every cell should reconcile by hand to the arithmetic above. Flipping row 13's exponent is the whole change, and a live valuation makes it. Year-end is the stated exception. You take it where cash really does bunch, where a mandate wants the conservative read, or where you have to line up against someone else's year-end model. Whichever you use, put the convention on the output sheet, and never let a 5.8% convention choice masquerade as 5.8% of insight.

Advertisement

Part of the course

This page is part of Modeling II: DCF, Comps, LBO & M&A (M3.09), in Phase 3: Corporate finance and valuation. The module's flashcards and its quiz are in the app.