Everything else this week leads here, and it's the reason Phase 5 exists. You've now built seventeen sector playbooks, and here they are as one map. Read it as the answer to a single question you can ask of any business: what is this, and therefore how do I value it? Columns: the model in a phrase · the primary valuation lens · the KPIs that matter most · the one-line master check.
| Sector (module) | Business model in a phrase | Primary lens | Signature KPIs | Master check |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banks (M5.01) | Borrow cheap deposits, lend dearer, manage credit risk | P/B vs ROE (ROA) | NIM, GNPA/NNPA/PCR, slippage, CASA, cost-income, CRAR/CET1 | ROE > cost of equity, sustainably; ROA >1% |
| NBFCs / HFCs (M5.02) | Lend without a deposit franchise; borrow wholesale | P/B vs ROE, P/E | Spread/NIM, ALM gap, gearing, credit cost, cost-of-funds mix, CRAR | ROA >2.5–3%; survives an ALM shock |
| Life insurance (M5.03) | Sell long-dated protection/savings; earn on the book's value | P/EV, VNB | APE, VNB & margin, EV/RoEV, persistency (13th-mo), solvency | VNB margin & persistency rising; RoEV > CoE |
| General insurance (M5.03) | Underwrite risk; invest the float | P/B, combined ratio | Combined ratio (<100), loss & expense ratios, solvency, float yield | Combined ratio <100 (underwriting profit, not just float) |
| SaaS / software (M5.04) | Sell recurring software subscriptions | EV/ARR, EV/Sales, Rule of 40 | NRR/NDR, CAC payback, GRR, Rule of 40, gross margin, RPO | Rule of 40 ≥40; NRR ≥110–120% |
| Marketplaces (M5.04) | Match buyers & sellers; take a cut of GMV | EV/Sales on net revenue | GMV, take rate, contribution margin/txn, liquidity, cohort retention | Positive & rising contribution margin per txn |
| FMCG / staples (M5.05) | Sell branded everyday products through vast distribution | P/E, EV/EBITDA (premium) | Volume vs value growth, gross & EBITDA margin, A&P %, ROCE, reach | Very high ROCE; volume-led (not just price) growth |
| Retail (M5.05) | Sell third-party goods through stores/formats | P/E, EV/EBITDA | SSSG/comps, sales/sq ft, inventory turns, GMROI, cash-conversion cycle | Positive comps ex-inflation; ROIC > WACC |
| E-commerce (M5.05) | Sell goods online, own fulfilment/logistics | EV/Sales | GMV, AOV, repeat rate, CM1/2/3, fulfilment cost %, CAC | Improving contribution margin as it scales |
| IT services (M5.06) | Sell skilled person-hours / outcomes to global enterprises | P/E | CC revenue growth, EBIT margin, TCV/book-to-bill, attrition, utilization | CC growth with a book-to-bill >1; stable margin |
| Telecom (M5.06) | Sell connectivity over a capital-heavy network | EV/EBITDA | ARPU, subs & net adds, churn, net debt/EBITDA, rev-market-share, capex intensity | ROCE > WACC after spectrum & capex; ARPU rising |
| Generics pharma (M5.07) | Make off-patent drugs; win on cost, quality, pipeline | P/E, EV/EBITDA | US price erosion, ANDA/Para IV pipeline, USFDA plant status, R&D %, complex mix | Clean plants; pipeline offsets base erosion |
| Hospitals (M5.07) | Sell medical care per occupied bed | EV/EBITDA, EV/bed | ARPOB, occupancy, ALOS, EBITDA/bed (mature vs new), payer mix | Mature-hospital ROCE > WACC; new beds maturing |
| Autos — OEM (M5.08) | Design & assemble vehicles; cyclical big-ticket demand | EV/EBITDA, P/E (cyclical) | Volumes (retail vs wholesale), ASP, share, EBITDA margin, inventory days, EV mix | Through-cycle ROIC > WACC; retail = wholesale |
| Auto ancillary (M5.08) | Supply parts/systems to OEMs & aftermarket | EV/EBITDA, P/E | Content/vehicle, client concentration, aftermarket/export mix, RM pass-through, ROCE | ROCE > WACC; EV-agnostic (not ICE-only) |
| Industrials / EPC (M5.08) | Win and execute projects/equipment orders | EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, ROCE | Order inflow & backlog, book-to-bill, backlog coverage, WC cycle, ROCE | Book-to-bill >1 with ROCE > WACC; clean WC |
| Commodities / metals / energy (M5.09) | Take the world's price; win on cost position | EV/EBITDA on mid-cycle, replacement cost | Cash cost & cost-curve quartile, EBITDA/tonne, net debt/EBITDA, realization, reserve life | 1st–2nd-quartile cost; survives the trough; never trailing P/E |
| Developers (M5.09) | Build & sell real estate; recognise revenue years late | P/NAV, EV/bookings | Pre-sales/bookings, collections vs bookings, velocity, net debt/equity, unsold inventory | Self-funding (OCF>0); collections track bookings |
| REITs (M5.09) | Own income-producing property; pay out the rent | P/NAV, FFO/AFFO, cap rate | NOI & same-store NOI, occupancy, WALE, AFFO payout, LTV, re-leasing spread | AFFO payout <90%; NOI & occupancy stable/rising |
| Airlines (M5.10) | Fly commodity seats at savage operating leverage | EV/EBITDAR | RASK, CASK & CASK ex-fuel, unit profit, load factor, days-cash, lease-adj. leverage | Lowest-cost survivor; days-cash deep; never trailing P/E |
| Hotels (M5.10) | Sell room-nights (own or manage the brand) | EV/EBITDA (owned) / P/E (asset-light fees) | RevPAR (ADR × occ), GOPPAR, RevPAR Index, owned vs fee mix, net debt/EBITDA | Fee ROIC very high; owned normalised ROIC > WACC |
| Media / streaming (M5.10) | Sell content subscriptions (and ads) at scale | EV/Sales, per-sub (→ P/E at maturity) | Net adds, ARPU, churn, content spend/amort %, engagement, ad mix | Path to FCF; churn <3%; content ROI positive |
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What is the short rule for choosing a multiple?
Here's the cross-sector multiples rule, distilled. Memorise it. It's a preamble in the master map, and it's the spine of the table above:
- Growth software → EV/Sales, EV/ARR.
- Profitable compounders & consumer staples → P/E, EV/EBIT, FCF yield.
- Capital-heavy / industrial → EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, ROCE.
- Banks / NBFCs → P/B vs ROE.
- Life insurers → P/EV, VNB.
- Commodities / cyclicals → EV/EBITDA, replacement cost, mid-cycle earnings, never trailing P/E.
- REITs / real estate → P/NAV, FFO/AFFO, cap rate.
- Airlines → EV/EBITDAR. Hotels → EV/EBITDA (asset-light fees on P/E). Media → EV/Sales, per-sub.