Glossarytaught in M3.09
Base case
Also called central case, most likely case.
The forecast an analyst considers most likely, built from assumptions each of which is individually reasonable.
Even a set of individually reasonable assumptions can compound into an unreasonable outcome. Margin expansion is plausible. So are working capital improvement and market share gain, yet all three at once for five years usually is not.
Check the base case against history. If it implies performance the company has never delivered, it's a bull case wearing the wrong label.