Glossarytaught in M3.09
Bull case
Also called upside case, optimistic scenario.
The scenario in which things go well, built to be internally consistent rather than merely optimistic.
Its rule is that everything moves together. If volumes are higher, competitors respond; if margins expand, entrants appear; if growth is faster, more capital is needed.
Its purpose is to bound the upside so that a position can be sized. A bull case that is simply the base case with better numbers isn't a scenario.
Ask what has to be true, then whether anyone has ever achieved it.