Process versus outcome

Distinguishing the quality of a decision from the quality of its result, which in a probabilistic activity are only loosely related.

A well-reasoned position can lose money and a reckless one can make it, and over a small number of decisions the outcomes say almost nothing about the process.

The consequence for an investor is that improvement has to come from examining decisions rather than results, which requires a record and a tolerance for being right about the reasoning and wrong about the money.

Score the process. The results take a decade to become evidence.